Trump tariffs ‘could cost Thailand B160 billion’

Thailand risks missing its economic growth target next year if US President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his pledge to raise tariffs as it could hurt the country’s exports and weaken the baht, according to a study.
The economy could potentially lose about 160 billion baht ($4.6 billion), shaving off about 0.9 percentage points from a projected 3% gross domestic product growth rate next year, Thanavath Phonvichai, president of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, told a briefing on Wednesday in Bangkok.
“This is a quite a seizable and unavoidable hit to our economy,” Mr Thanavath said, citing a university study based on Mr Trump’s previously announced tariff plans. “Our target to reach 3% growth next year will be at risk.”
Authorities are preparing to shield the economy from possible trade tensions under Trump’s presidency and sustain a tepid recovery in growth through a mix of cash handouts and debt-relief measures.
Thailand was among the beneficiaries of the US-China trade war during Mr Trump’s first term in office when companies relocated businesses from China to bypass punitive tariffs and trade curbs.
The hit to the Thai economy may come directly from reduced exports to the US, its largest market, as well as indirect impact stemming from supply chain disruptions, the study showed. Mr Trump’s policies will also weaken the local currency and lower US investment in Thailand, Mr Thanavath said.
Shipments of Thai electrical equipment and electronics will likely be the hardest hit as nearly one-fifth of the country’s total exports go to the US market, the university said in a statement. Other key industries set to fall into the crosshairs of a trade war are machinery, processed food, automobiles and parts, steel and rubber.
The benefits from an escalation in US-China tensions will be Thailand’s ability to replace Chinese products in some sectors such as machinery, electrical appliances and rubber, the university said.